100 Clicks and a Blacklist?

Intro from Yellow

This is an articlepulled out by me from the web archivefrom the deceased Traffuck blog. I believe that despite the fact that it was published back in 2015, its topic will ALWAYS be relevant, and the question is: “After how many clicks without leads, should I disable the ad/adset/campaign/feed/zone/placement, etc.?«will forever be circulating in arbitration chats. That’s why I have the audacity to copy-paste it to my blog and slightly format it + chew it up (rewrite in places).

If you are the author of this information and would like me to provide a link to your resources, please contact meDM on Telegram.

Author’s Intro

I often see the question: after how many clicks (and lack of leads) the site should be added to the blacklist. Below I will giveclear answer.

What do we need to start from?

First, we need to calculate the minimum conversion we need, below which we will go to zero or minus (for those who are particularly stubborn — not a big plus). That is, we want our conversion traffic to be no lower than a certain value.
How accurate a blacklist do we want to get and how much budget to spend. More on this below.

Required conversion

Envelope = ratio of the number of applications (leads) to the number of visits. Further in the formulas we will denote it as CR.

Usually, not every application is approved by the affiliate and paid, but with a large amount of traffic we have a constant approval rate for applications.

For one application we receive X amount of money, whereX = payout * approval. For example, our payment is 500 rubles, and the approval rate is 70%. On average, for 1 application we receive 500 * 0.70 = 350 rubles.

We also need 2 more concepts: CPC (cost per click) = average cost of one visit (click, visitor) and EPC (earning per click) = income from each click.

EPC = payout * approval * CR. For example, with a stable conversion of 1%, a payment of 500 rubles and an approval rate of 70%, we have EPC = 500*0.70*0.01 = 3.5 rubles.

Let’s say we have traffic with CPC = 2.5 rubles and we want an EPC of 3 rubles or more. What should CR be?

CR = EPC / (payout * approval)

It turns out that in our case the required conversion = 3 rubles / (500 rubles * 0.70) = 0.86%.

Accuracy and probabilities

What is the probability of getting a lead with one click? With a stable conversione of 0.86%, the probability will be equal to 0.86%.

Ok, what is the probability of getting at least one lead with three clicks? With a hundred clicks? If someone thought that 86%, then he can roll his lip!

A little theory:to obtain the probability of the occurrence of at least one event out of many, independent of each other (and each application is in no way dependent on the others), we must subtract the probability of the absence of such events from unity.

The probability of getting a lead with one click is 0.86%. And the probability of not getting it is 99.14%.

Probability of not getting a lead with three clicks:

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$99.14\%\cdot99.14\%\cdot99.14\% = 97.44\%$ .

With a hundred clicks: $(99,14\%)^{100} = 42,16\%$ .

That is, with conversione 0.86%, from three clicks we will receive a lead with a probability of 2.56%, and from a hundred clicks — with a probability of 57.84%. For those who got 86% at the beginning,I would especially like to emphasize: $57,84\% \neq 100\cdot0,86\%$ .

Counting clicks

Our task:determine the number of clicks from which we will get at least one lead with a certain probability. From the previous calculations we can derive a general formula.

Probability of getting at least one lead with n clicks:.

Let’s say that to check, we need to drive traffic, which with a 90% probability will give a lead. If there is a lead, we move on. No — the site is blacklisted (disable the ad/adset/placement, etc.).

Let’s rewrite the formula slightly:

Let’s apply logarithm and get:

$n = \frac{ln (1-p)}{ln (1-CR)}$

Note Yellow:if you are interested in the details of how one formula turned into a second, ask ChatGPT, they will tell you everything.

That is, with conversione 0.86%, the platform will give at least one lead with a probability of 90% with 267 clicks (according to the formula

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$n = \frac{ln(1-0,90)}{ln(1-0,0086)}$ ). Note that CR here is not expressed as a percentage, but in parts of a unit.

According to the condition, our CPC = 2.5 rubles. Thus (2.5 * 267), you need to spend 667 rubles in order to determine with a 90% probability that the site is unsuitable.

Most likely, 90% will be too accurate and too expensive for you. For example, for an 80% probability you will get only 186 clicks and 465 rubles.

Examples

a site with a conversion rate of 1% will generate a lead in 300 clicks with a probability of 95.1%,
a site with a conversion rate of 5% will generate a lead in 50 clicks with a probability of 92.3%,
a site with a conversion of 3% will generate a lead in 20 clicks with a probability of 45.6%,
if the site has 100 clicks and no leads, then conversion is below 2% with a probability of 86.7%,
if the site has 100 clicks and no leads, then conversion is below 1% with a probability of 63.4% – i.e. IMHO 100 clicks with the desired conversione from 1% is not enough to add a site to black,
if the site has 200 clicks and no leads, then conversion is below 1% with a probability of 86.6%.

I recommend counting with a probability of 80-90%. 95% is already quite high accuracy, but you need a lot of budget. When there is already a lot of traffic, you can take 80% or less.

Template for determining the required number of clicks in Google’s calculator(the formula contains conversion 1.2%, probability 80%)