100 кликов и в блэк? — Жёлтый веб

Intro by Yellow

It's an article that I pulled from the web archive from the defunct Traffuck blog. I believe that despite the fact that it was published in 2015, its topic will be relevant ALWAYS, and the question: "After how many clicks with no leads, disable the ad/adset/campaign/feed/zone/placement, etc.?"It's going to be around arbitrage chats forever. That's why I have the nerve to copy it to my blog and slightly format it + chew it up (rerank).

If you are the author of this information and would like me to link to your resources, please contact me in a PM on Telegram.

Author's Intro

I often see the question: after how many clicks (and no leads) a site should be added to the blacklist. Below I will give unambiguous answer.

What we need to start from

First, we need to calculate the minimum envelope we need, below which we will pour in zero or minus (for those of you who are particularly stoned, not enough of a plus.). That is, we want our traffic to convert no lower than a certain value.
How accurate a blacklist we want and how much budget to spend. More on this below.

Required envelope

Envelope = the ratio of the number of requests (leads) to the number of visits. Hereinafter in the formulas we will denote it as CR.

Usually not every application is approved by the affiliate and paid, but with a large amount of traffic, we have a constant rate of uprooting (approval) of applications.

For one application we get X amount of money, where X = payout * upside. For example, the payout we have 500 rubles, and appruv 70%. On average for 1 application we get 500*0.70 = 350 rubles.

We will also need 2 more concepts: CPC (cost per click) = average price per visit (click, visitor) and EPC (earning per click) = earnings per click.

EPC = payout * uptake * CR. For example, with a stable envelope of 1%, a payout of 500 rubles and 70% appruse we have EPC = 500*0.70*0.01 = 3.5 rubles.

Let's say we have traffic with CPC = 2.5 rubles and we want an EPC of 3 rubles or more. What should the CR be?

CR = EPC / (payout * upside)

It turns out that in our case the required envelope = 3 rubles / (500 rubles * 0.70) = 0.86%.

Accuracy and probabilities

What is the probability of getting a lead from a single click? With a stable conversion rate of 0.86%, the probability will be 0.86%.

Okay, what's the probability of getting at least one lead from three clicks? From a hundred clicks? If someone thought 86%, they can roll their lip!

A little bit of theory: to obtain the probability of the origin of at least one event out of many, independent of each other (and each application is independent of the others.), we must subtract the probability of the absence of such events from one.

The probability of getting a lead from one click is 0.86%. And the probability of not getting one is 99.14%.

The likelihood of not getting a lead from three clicks:

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$99.14\%\cdot99.14\%\cdot99.14\% = 97.44\%$ .

From a hundred clicks: $(99,14\%)^{100} = 42,16\%$ .

That is, with a 0.86% conversion rate from three clicks we will get a lead with a probability of 2.56%, and from a hundred clicks we will get a lead with a probability of 57.84%. For those who had 86% in the beginning, especially emphasize: $57,84\% \neq 100\cdot0,86\%$ .

Counting clicks

Our mission: determine how many clicks we will get at least one lead with a certain probability. From the previous calculations we can derive a general formula.

The probability of getting at least one lead from n clicks: .

Let's assume that to test it, we need to run traffic that with a probability of 90% will generate a lead. If there is a lead, we continue to run it. No - the site is blacklisted (disable ads/adset/placement, etc.).

Let's rewrite the formula slightly:

Let's apply logarithmization and get:

$n = \frac{ln (1-p)}{ln (1-CR)}$

Note to Yellow: If you are interested in the details of how one formula made a second one, ask ChatGPT, they will tell you everything.

That is, with a 0.86% conversion rate, the site will yield at least one lead with a probability of 90% at 267 clicks (using the formula

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$n = \frac{ln(1-0,90)}{ln(1-0,0086)}$ ). Note that CR here is not in percent, but in parts of one.

By convention, we have CPC = 2.5 rubles. Thus (2.5*267), we need to spend 667 rubles to determine with probability 90% that the site is unusable.

Most likely, 90% will be too precise and too costly for you. For example, for 80% probability will get only 186 clicks and 465 rubles.

Examples

a site with a conversion rate of 1% will give a lead for 300 clicks with a probability of 95.1%,
a site with a conversion rate of 5% will yield a lead for 50 clicks with a probability of 92.3%,
a site with a conversion rate of 3% will yield a lead for 20 clicks with a probability of 45.6%,
if a site has 100 clicks and no leads, the conversion is below 2% with a probability of 86.7%,
If the site has 100 clicks and no leads, the conversion is below 1% with a probability of 63.4% - ie IMHO 100 clicks with the desired conversion of 1% to add the site in the black, not enough,
if a site has 200 clicks and no leads, the conversion is below 1% with a probability of 86.6%.

I recommend counting with a probability of 80-90%. 95% is already pretty accurate, but you need a lot of budget. When there is already a lot of traffic, you can take 80% or less.

Template for determining the number of clicks needed in google calculator (1.2% envelope, 80% probability are scored in the formula)

100 clicks and into black?