{"id":1288,"date":"2024-02-08T18:57:13","date_gmt":"2024-02-08T14:57:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/yellowweb.top\/?p=1288"},"modified":"2024-02-09T11:14:34","modified_gmt":"2024-02-09T07:14:34","slug":"100-klikov-i-v-blek","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/yellowweb.top\/en\/100-klikov-i-v-blek\/","title":{"rendered":"100 Clicks and a Blacklist?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Intro by Yellow<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It's an article that I pulled from the web archive<\/a> from the defunct Traffuck blog. I believe that despite the fact that it was published in 2015, its topic will be relevant ALWAYS, and the question: \"After how many clicks with no leads, disable the ad\/adset\/campaign\/feed\/zone\/placement, etc.?<\/strong>\"It's going to be around arbitrage chats forever. That's why I have the nerve to copy it to my blog and slightly format it + chew it up (rerank<\/em>). <\/p>\n\n\n\n

If you are the author of this information and would like me to link to your resources, please contact me in a PM on Telegram<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Author's Intro<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

I often see the question: after how many clicks (and no leads) a site should be added to the blacklist. Below I will give unambiguous answer<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What we need to start from<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
    \n
  1. First, we need to calculate the minimum envelope we need, below which we will pour in zero or minus (for those of you who are particularly stoned, not enough of a plus.<\/em>). That is, we want our traffic to convert no lower than a certain value.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  2. How accurate a blacklist we want and how much budget to spend. More on this below.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    Required envelope<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

    Envelope = the ratio of the number of requests (leads) to the number of visits. Hereinafter in the formulas we will denote it as CR.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Usually not every application is approved by the affiliate and paid, but with a large amount of traffic, we have a constant rate of uprooting (approval) of applications.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    For one application we get X amount of money, where X = payout * upside<\/strong>. For example, the payout we have 500 rubles, and appruv 70%. On average for 1 application we get 500*0.70 = 350 rubles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    We will also need 2 more concepts: CPC (cost per click) = average price per visit (click, visitor) and EPC (earning per click) = earnings per click.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    EPC = payout * uptake * CR<\/strong>. For example, with a stable envelope of 1%, a payout of 500 rubles and 70% appruse we have EPC = 500*0.70*0.01 = 3.5 rubles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Let's say we have traffic with CPC = 2.5 rubles and we want an EPC of 3 rubles or more. What should the CR be?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    CR = EPC \/ (payout * upside)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    It turns out that in our case the required envelope = 3 rubles \/ (500 rubles * 0.70) = 0.86%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Accuracy and probabilities<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

    What is the probability of getting a lead from a single click? With a stable conversion rate of 0.86%, the probability will be 0.86%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Okay, what's the probability of getting at least one lead from three clicks? From a hundred clicks? If someone thought 86%, they can roll their lip!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    A little bit of theory: <\/strong>to obtain the probability of the origin of at least one event out of many, independent of each other (and each application is independent of the others.<\/em>), we must subtract the probability of the absence of such events from one.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The probability of getting a lead from one click is 0.86%. And the probability of not getting one is 99.14%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The likelihood of not getting a lead from three clicks:

    quicklatex.com-33fdb74f0f2f4f21a4c340dd353b250a_l3<\/span>.png<\/span>321<\/span>\u00d7321<\/span>px19<\/span><\/div>\"99.14\\%\\cdot99.14\\%\\cdot99.14\\%. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    From a hundred clicks: \"(99,14\\%)^{100}.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    That is, with a 0.86% conversion rate from three clicks we will get a lead with a probability of 2.56%, and from a hundred clicks we will get a lead with a probability of 57.84%. For those who had 86% in the beginning, especially emphasize:<\/strong> \"57,84\\%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Counting clicks<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

    Our mission:<\/strong> determine how many clicks we will get at least one lead with a certain probability. From the previous calculations we can derive a general formula. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The probability of getting at least one lead from n clicks: \"p.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Let's assume that to test it, we need to run traffic that with a probability of 90% will generate a lead. If there is a lead, we continue to run it. No - the site is blacklisted (disable ads\/adset\/placement, etc.<\/em>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Let's rewrite the formula slightly:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"1-p<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    Let's apply logarithmization and get:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"n<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Note to Yellow: If you are interested in the details of how one formula made a second one, ask ChatGPT, they will tell you everything.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    That is, with a 0.86% conversion rate, the site will yield at least one lead with a probability of 90% at 267 clicks (using the formula

    quicklatex.com-06559f0cf1dabcf5f2e80fec150f181a_l3<\/span><\/div>\"n). Note that CR here is not in percent, but in parts of one.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    By convention, we have CPC = 2.5 rubles. Thus (2.5*267), we need to spend 667 rubles to determine with probability 90% that the site is unusable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Most likely, 90% will be too precise and too costly for you. For example, for 80% probability will get only 186 clicks and 465 rubles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Examples<\/h3>\n\n\n\n